"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 10/20/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.43% +0.06  |  15-Year Fixed: 7.07% +0.03

Builders are the gloomiest in 14 years. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points to 29 in October, the lowest since June 2012 and below even the 30 of April 2020, when the pandemic hit. Builders in the West, which includes California, are the gloomiest region at 26 on NAHB's three month average.

They are paying to move homes. Buyer traffic fell to 18, the weakest since April 2012 outside of that pandemic month. Nationally, 43% of builders cut prices in October, the most at any point since 2020, the average cut held at 6%, and 65% offered sales incentives. NAHB points to mortgage rates above 7% and higher costs for materials, energy and labor.

I checked our own MLS. I pulled one export a month for 2026 and tracked homes built in 2025 or 2026. From January to June, 33% to 36% of the new homes on our 15 city board were in contract at any time, more than resale. Since July it has run 21% to 28%, and today it is 22%, or 31 of 140, against 26% for resale. New homes for sale grew to 109 from 75 in January.

Closer to home, firmer but cooling. In Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 19 of 52 new homes are in contract, about 37%, still ahead of resale at 25% but down from about half in January through March. Most of the board's unsold new homes are in the Tri-Valley, where only 10 of 73 are in contract. Builders here are also protecting list prices: about one in four new homes listed a month ago has cut its price, against one in three resale homes.

Permits have not turned yet. Through August, the nine Bay Area counties issued permits for 11,507 homes, 22% more than a year earlier, about 60% of them in buildings of five or more units, and Alameda County's single family permits rose 7% to 689. The fall numbers will show whether October's mood becomes fewer new homes.

What it means for you. If you are buying, new construction is where you have the most leverage right now; the seller has a sales target. Ask the builder about a rate buydown or closing cost credit and weigh it against a price cut. On our five city median of $1,080,000 with 20% down, principal and interest runs about $6,000 a month at 7.43%, and a permanent buydown to 6.43% would save about $580 a month. If you are selling near a new community, price to the comps and expect buyers to ask what the builder down the street is offering.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,631 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 141 coming soon and 178 brand new. The five city ledger carries 680 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 607 on the market and 73 coming soon, down from 681.

Fremont holds 229 live listings: 186 active, 27 coming soon, 12 brand new and 4 back on market, with a median on market list price of $1,299,444 at $804 a square foot and a typical listing out 39 days. Hayward carries 192, Milpitas 103, Newark 92 and Union City 64. Across all five cities the median is $1,080,000 at $676 a square foot, 283 homes are priced under a million, and 176 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

S&P 500: 7,690.73 +0.41%  |  Dow: 51,966.03 -0.07%  |  Nasdaq: 26,430.89 +1.11%

Earnings steer the open. These are Monday's closes. At 8:36 AM PT Tuesday the Dow was up 0.93%, led by 3M, up about 5% after raising its 2026 earnings guidance to $9.10 to $9.15 a share; its third quarter adjusted earnings of $2.50 were up 12%. Netflix reports after the bell.

Builder stocks shrug. Homebuilder shares fell Monday as NAHB's survey landed, D.R. Horton down 2.93% and Lennar 1.57%, then bounced Tuesday morning as the 10-Year eased, Lennar up about 3.9% and D.R. Horton 3.2%. Builders are gloomy; builder stocks, apparently, are not.

10-Year Treasury: 5.15% +0.06  |  Gold: $4,160.10 -0.50%  |  Silver: $57.27 -0.06%  |  Brent Crude: $109.55 -0.28%

The data matches the mood. Housing starts ran at a 1.221 million annual pace in September, 5.2% below August and 7.4% below a year ago, the Census Bureau said this morning, though both changes are inside the survey's margin of error. Single family starts fell 4.6% to an 859,000 pace, and permits slipped to 1.40 million, 3.0% below a year ago.

A little relief this morning. The numbers above are Monday's settlements. At 8:36 AM PT the 10-Year traded near 5.11% after Monday's 5.15% close, Brent fell about 1.2% to near $108.25, and silver rose about 1.2% while gold held about flat.

Bitcoin: $82,379 +0.30%  |  Ethereum: $2,429.61 +1.07%  |  XRP: $1.31 +0.94%

Steady. Bitcoin is up 0.30% over 24 hours near $82,380, Ether is up 1.07% and XRP is up 0.94%, live from CoinGecko at 8:35 AM PT.