"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 10/16/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.37% +0.04  |  15-Year Fixed: 7.04% +0.06

Fewer buyers are signing. Redfin says pending home sales fell 4% from August to September, the biggest monthly drop in more than three years, to the lowest level since 2014 outside the pandemic lockdown. West Coast metros slowed the most, with Seattle down 24.4% from a year ago and Los Angeles down 16%.

Rates are the reason. Freddie Mac's weekly average held at 7.40% on Thursday, its highest since November 2023 and up from 6.27% a year ago. Mortgage News Daily's index ticked up Friday to 7.37% for the 30-year and 7.04% for the 15-year. On our five city median list price of $1,088,000 with 20% down, principal and interest run about $6,009 a month, roughly $661 more than at last October's 6.23%. The house did not get pricier; the money did.

Supply keeps building here. The board wide table rose to 2,681 from 2,645 as coming soon homes went live: brand new listings jumped to 196 from 153 while coming soon fell to 133 from 155. Newark rose to 95 live listings from 90 and Union City to 66 from 64.

What it means for you. If you can carry today's payment, you face fewer rivals and more choice, with 165 homes across the five cities listed 60 days or longer. If you are selling, price for the buyers shopping now, not the ones waiting on rates.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,681 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 133 coming soon and 196 brand new. The five city ledger carries 687 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 617 on the market and 70 coming soon, up from 683.

Fremont holds 237 live listings: 190 active, 26 coming soon, 18 brand new and 3 back on market, with a median on market list price of $1,299,000 at $805 a square foot and a typical listing out 36 days. Hayward carries 189, Milpitas 100, Newark 95 and Union City 66. Across all five cities the median is $1,088,000 at $681 a square foot, 287 homes are priced under a million, and 165 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

S&P 500: 7,659.44 -1.09%  |  Dow: 52,002.41 -0.34%  |  Nasdaq: 26,140.03 -2.14%

Chips sold off again. AMD fell 5.95%, Micron 5.63% and Broadcom 4.52% Friday, and CoreWeave, the debt heavy AI cloud company, dropped 11.91%. The Nasdaq lost 2.14% on the day and 4.48% for the week, its worst week since late June, while energy stocks held the Dow to a 0.34% loss.

Netflix is down a quarter. The stock closed at $70.53, down 24.8% for 2026 and about a third below its April 16 high of $107.79. This week it announced about 1,000 job cuts, roughly 6% of its staff, and it reports third quarter results Tuesday. Shareholders will be watching that episode closely.

10-Year Treasury: 5.09% -0.01  |  Gold: $4,181.10 +0.26%  |  Silver: $57.31 +0.26%  |  Brent Crude: $105.92 -0.13%

Holiday sales should speed up. The National Retail Federation forecast Thursday that November and December sales will grow 4.2% to a record $1.013 trillion, after 3.1% last year. Bain sees 4.5%, Deloitte 4.0% to 4.8% and Mastercard 5.5%.

Compare like with like. The newsletter's chart set every forecast against NRF's 3.1%, but each firm counts differently, so I put each forecast next to its own 2025 result. Three of four still speed up; Deloitte's range sits around its 4.1% from last year. About half the gain is prices, per Mastercard and Bain. Santa's sleigh costs more to fuel this year.

Oil jumped, bonds held. Brent settled Friday at $109.86, up 3.72%, as attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz picked up; the card shows Thursday's $105.92 settlement. The 10-Year closed at 5.09%, after Thursday's drop to 5.10% from 5.19%. Gold and silver are Friday's settlements.

A correction. The newsletter showed Thursday's 10-Year at 5.07%, gold up 0.21% and Brent at $105.30. Treasury's close was 5.10%, gold settled up 1.51%, and Brent settled at $105.92, down 0.13%.

Bitcoin: $81,581 -0.59%  |  Ethereum: $2,412.03 -1.65%  |  XRP: $1.30 -2.53%

Slipping with tech. Bitcoin is down 0.59% over 24 hours near $81,600, Ether is down 1.65% and XRP is down 2.53%, live from CoinGecko at 2:11 PM PT. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 on Thursday, to $79,676 on Coinbase, before buyers stepped back in.