"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 10/15/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.45% -0.01  |  15-Year Fixed: 7.14% 0.00

Buyers are pulling back. The Mortgage Bankers Association's 30-year contract rate reached 7.50% last week, its highest since November 2023 and more than a point above a year ago. Purchase applications fell 4% on the week and are 16% below the same week last year.

We checked our own numbers. I compared today's MLS export with the same day last year. Across the board's 14 cities, homes in contract fell 20%, to 686 from 858, while homes for sale slipped just 4%, to 1,979 from 2,072. Newark (35 to 20) and Union City (30 to 23) saw the sharpest drop in signed deals even as their for sale counts rose 36% and 56%. Hayward held up best, with contracts down 6%.

The payment math. Mortgage News Daily's latest reading is Wednesday's: 7.45% for the 30-year and 7.14% for the 15-year. On our five city median list price of $1,064,944 with 20% down, principal and interest run about $5,928 a month, roughly $649 more than at last October's 6.31%. That is a car payment, minus the car. The 10-Year fell to about 5.09% this morning, so Thursday's reading could come in lower.

What it means for you. With fewer buyers signing, the ones still shopping have room to negotiate, especially in Newark and Union City where supply has grown. Sellers should price for the market we have now; 167 homes have already sat 60 days or longer.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,645 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 155 coming soon and 153 brand new. The five city ledger carries 683 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 606 on the market and 77 coming soon, up from 677.

Fremont holds 239 live listings: 198 active, 27 coming soon, 13 brand new and 1 back on market, with a median on market list price of $1,249,995 at $782 a square foot and a typical listing out 35 days. Hayward carries 189, Milpitas 101, Newark 90 and Union City 64. Across all five cities the median is $1,064,944 at $679 a square foot, 288 homes are priced under a million, and 167 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

S&P 500: 7,718.94 -1.11%  |  Dow: 51,621.48 -0.09%  |  Nasdaq: 26,692.87 -1.88%

AI hardware took the hit. Dell fell 11.27% Wednesday and CoreWeave, which rents out AI computing power, fell 15.46% as investors questioned how much businesses will really spend on AI and how much tech companies are borrowing to build it. Nvidia slipped 3.16% and Meta 3.27%, while the Dow, lighter on tech, eased just 0.09%.

Still selling this morning. At 8:56 AM PT Dell is down 8.06% and CoreWeave down 3.22%, while the Dow is up 0.83% as money rotates out of tech rather than out of stocks. Even a building boom needs a buyer at the end.

10-Year Treasury: 5.19% -0.02  |  Gold: $4,107.90 -1.66%  |  Silver: $55.88 -6.13%  |  Brent Crude: $106.06 +0.35%

Wholesale prices ran hot. The producer price index for final demand rose 1.3% in September and 6.3% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since December 2022, a day after consumer prices rose 3.7%.

Bonds rallied anyway. The 10-Year fell to about 5.09% this morning from Wednesday's 5.19% close as investors moved into Treasurys during the tech selloff. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed has time to wait, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly called another hike likely but not urgent. CME FedWatch odds of a hold on Oct. 28 rose to 68% from 46%. A lower 10-Year usually pulls mortgage rates down, with a lag.

A correction. The newsletter showed the 10-Year at 5.10%, gold up 1.16% and Brent down 1.38% for Wednesday. Treasury's close was 5.19%, and the settlements show gold down 1.66% and Brent up 0.35%. This morning gold is up 1.58% and silver up 2.36%.

Bitcoin: $82,361 +0.84%  |  Ethereum: $2,438.64 +0.33%  |  XRP: $1.34 +0.56%

Steadier than tech. Bitcoin is up 0.84% over 24 hours near $82,400, Ether is up 0.33% and XRP is up 0.56%, live from CoinGecko at 8:56 AM PT. Wednesday's report caught Bitcoin near $81,700, so it has gone essentially nowhere while Dell lost nearly a fifth over two days.