"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 10/14/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.46% -0.02  |  15-Year Fixed: 7.14% -0.01

Adjustable rate loans are back. ICE's October Mortgage Monitor says ARMs made up more than 11% of rate locks, their largest share in nearly four years, as fixed rates climbed past 7%. About 150,000 ARMs reach their first reset this year and roughly 180,000 next year, a small slice of the market, but some resets bite: ICE expects 7-year ARMs taken out in 2020 to jump a median $1,066 a month, or 36%.

The trade, on a local home. On our five city median list price of $1,050,000 with 20% down, Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed at 7.46% runs about $5,850 a month in principal and interest. Its 7/6 ARM at 6.88% runs about $5,521, roughly $329 less, or about $27,700 over the seven fixed years. After that the rate follows the market.

Rates, before today's inflation news. MND's latest reading is Tuesday's: 7.46% for the 30-year and 7.14% for the 15-year. This morning's hotter inflation report pushed the 10-Year to about 5.23%, so Wednesday's reading could come in higher.

What it means for you. An ARM can lower the payment if you expect to sell or refinance within seven years, but price the reset before you sign: ask your lender for the caps and the worst case payment. With 165 homes sitting 60 days or longer, sellers are listening.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,639 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 163 coming soon and 169 brand new. The five city ledger carries 677 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 601 on the market and 76 coming soon, down from 683.

Fremont holds 234 live listings: 193 active, 28 coming soon and 13 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,249,995 at $778 a square foot and a typical listing out 35 days. Hayward carries 189, Milpitas 101, Newark 89 and Union City 64. Across all five cities the median is $1,050,000 at $675 a square foot, 286 homes are priced under a million, and 165 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

S&P 500: 7,805.45 -0.02%  |  Dow: 51,670.10 -0.35%  |  Nasdaq: 27,204.38 -0.15%

Bumble goes private. Ithaca Holdings agreed Tuesday to buy the dating app for $6.05 a share in cash, a deal valued at $1.3 billion and 138% above Friday's $2.54 close. The stock jumped to $3.80 Monday on reports of talks and closed Tuesday at $5.95, up 66.7% for the year after sliding to $2.50 last week.

Inflation day on Wall Street. The numbers above are Tuesday's close. Wednesday opened lower after the inflation report, and at 9:31 AM PT the S&P 500 was down 1.12%, the Dow down 0.30% and the Nasdaq down 1.72%. Bank of America is down 5.34% after a $1.2 billion regulatory penalty cut its third quarter profit to 91 cents a share, against the $1.10 analysts expected; excluding the penalty it earned $1.08. Morgan Stanley beat, with stock trading revenue of $5.8 billion against $4.9 billion expected, yet it is down 3.49%.

10-Year Treasury: 5.21% -0.03  |  Gold: $4,177.30 -0.32%  |  Silver: $59.53 -1.63%  |  Brent Crude: $105.69 -0.90%

Inflation picked back up. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% from a year earlier, up from August's 3.4% and a tenth above the 3.6% forecast in Tuesday's report. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month and accounted for over half of the increase. Core prices, without food and energy, rose 0.3% in the month and 2.6% from a year earlier. The 10-Year climbed to about 5.23%, and at 9:31 AM PT gold was down 1.90% and silver down 6.26%.

Retirees get 3.6%. The same numbers set Social Security's raise: benefits rise 3.6% in January, the biggest increase since 2023's 8.7%, lifting the average retired worker to $2,170 a month from $2,095, about $75 more. The newsletter estimate was about 3.5% and $68. Bay Area prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, so the raise roughly keeps pace here.

Saudi oil is coming back. Oil supply is climbing back. Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 8.37 million barrels a day in September, up about a third from August's 6.24 million, which was its lowest since 1990. That is still about 2.5 million short of February's 10.9 million, before the conflict with Iran began Feb. 28, so Market Briefs' "close to pre-war levels" is a stretch. Two fixes to the supplied graphic: July was 8.2 million as Saudi Arabia reported it, not 8.1, and the kingdom's own May figure was never published, so our chart leaves May out.

A correction. Market Briefs showed gold down 0.02% and Brent up 1.17% for Tuesday; the settlements show gold down 0.32% and Brent down 0.90%. Its 10-Year of 5.21% was right, but that is down 0.03 from Friday, not flat. The cards above are Tuesday's settlements and Treasury close.

Bitcoin: $81,662 -2.18%  |  Ethereum: $2,430.92 -3.44%  |  XRP: $1.33 -3.35%

Lower with stocks. Bitcoin is down 2.18% over 24 hours near $81,700, Ether is down 3.44% and XRP is down 3.35%, live from CoinGecko at 9:31 AM PT. Tuesday's report caught Bitcoin near $83,100.