"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 10/02/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.54% -0.06  |  15-Year Fixed: 7.18% -0.04

Rates eased from a near three year high. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year was 7.54% on Thursday, down from Wednesday's 7.60%, and the 15-year is 7.18%. On a $1,079,500 home with 20% down, principal and interest run $6,062 a month, $36 less than Wednesday and still $380 more than when September began at 6.89%.

The jobs report could move rates next. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. The 10-Year Treasury, which mortgage rates tend to follow, was near 5.24% at 8:00 AM PT, about where it closed Thursday, so the report has not moved rates yet.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,700 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 161 coming soon and 189 brand new. The five city ledger carries 679 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 604 on the market and 75 coming soon, up from 675 on Thursday.

Fremont holds 244 live listings: 193 active, 30 coming soon, 20 brand new and 1 back on market, with a median on market list price of $1,249,495 at $781 a square foot and a typical listing out 30 days. Hayward carries 179, Milpitas 107, Newark 88 and Union City 61. Across all five cities the median is $1,079,500 at $675 a square foot, 283 homes are priced under a million, and 140 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

What it means for you. If you stepped back at 7.60%, keep your preapproval current: on the median home, every quarter point off the rate is worth about $147 a month. If you are selling, price for today's rates, not tomorrow's; 140 of the 604 homes on the market across these five cities have been listed 60 days or longer.

S&P 500: 7,666.45 +0.19%  |  Dow: 50,926.56 +0.04%  |  Nasdaq: 26,871.60 +0.04%

A quiet start to the quarter, then a stronger Friday. These are Thursday's closes. At 8:00 AM PT Friday the S&P was up 0.93%, the Dow up 0.53% and the Nasdaq up 1.47%.

Nike's China problem. Revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion in the quarter ended August 31. Greater China fell 26% excluding currency moves (22% in dollars), leaving it smaller than Nike's Asia Pacific and Latin America business; a year ago it was larger. North America grew 2%. Nike expects revenue for the fiscal year to fall by a high single digit percentage, and the shares were down 5.89% at 8:00 AM PT after closing Thursday at $35.15, already their lowest close since 2016. The turnaround is still at the starting line.

10-Year Treasury: 5.24% -0.05  |  Gold: $4,202.30 +0.37%  |  Silver: $61.18 +1.01%  |  Brent Crude: $102.31 +4.37%

Factories are growing. The ISM factory index was 54.5 in September, the ninth straight month of growth, and its prices gauge jumped to 77.9 from 71.1. ISM does not allow charts built from its index, so our chart tells the same story with public jobs data: factories added 9,000 jobs in September, a fourth straight monthly gain, and 72,000 since December.

Not in the East Bay. Factory jobs in the San Jose metro rose 1.4% in the year to August, while the Oakland-Fremont area, which covers Alameda and Contra Costa counties, lost 5.5%. Its 93,300 factory jobs are the fewest for an August since 2016, down from 113,500 at the September 2022 peak.

The rest of the picture. Hourly pay rose 3.0% in a year, below the 3.4% rise in consumer prices. In Europe, today's flash estimate put euro area inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2%, led by energy at 18.8%. December gold settled up 0.37% and silver up 1.01%, and Brent's December contract jumped 4.37% Thursday to $102.31. At 8:00 AM PT Friday, Brent was down 2.01%, gold down 0.10% and silver up 0.38%.

Bitcoin: $85,676 +1.84%  |  Ethereum: $2,708.96 +1.02%  |  XRP: $1.51 +2.06%

Crypto rises with stocks. Bitcoin is up 1.84% over 24 hours to about $85,700, near its September 21 high close of $86,505, while Ether is up 1.02% and XRP 2.06%, live from Coinbase at 8:00 AM PT.