"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 10/01/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.60% +0.02  |  15-Year Fixed: 7.22% +0.02

Rates rose for a third day. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year reached 7.60% on Wednesday, the highest in almost three years, and the 15-year is 7.22%, the highest since October 2023. On a $1,088,000 home with 20% down, principal and interest now run $6,146 a month, $419 more than when September began at 6.89%.

The rent squeeze moves up the income ladder. A new Urban Institute survey found one in five working-age renters (20.0%) paid rent late or short at some point in 2025, up from 16.5% in 2024 and the survey's first significant yearly change since 2017. The jump came from middle income renters, 14.3% to 21.6%. The lower income rise in the graphic going around (26.4% to 27.8%) is within the margin of error.

Here, rent is still climbing. The survey's income bands are national, and the West was the one region where the share slipped. Zillow's August index puts the typical Fremont rent at $3,375, up 5.2% in a year, with Milpitas up 9.5% and Union City 6.3%, against 2.5% nationally. All five of our cities beat the national pace.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,672 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 167 coming soon and 166 brand new. The five city ledger carries 675 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 593 on the market and 82 coming soon, down from 691 on Wednesday.

Fremont holds 242 live listings: 189 active, 30 coming soon, 22 brand new and 1 back on market, with a median on market list price of $1,242,633 at $771 a square foot and a typical listing out 30 days. Hayward carries 177, Milpitas 107, Newark 87 and Union City 62. Across all five cities the median is $1,088,000 at $673 a square foot, 276 homes are priced under a million, and 147 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

What it means for you. Today's squeezed renters are tomorrow's buyers, but at 7.60% the median home costs about 1.8 times Fremont's typical rent before taxes and insurance. If you own a rental, rent growth is holding up. If you are buying, the math rewards negotiating on price: 147 of the 593 homes on the market across these five cities have been listed 60 days or longer.

S&P 500: 7,651.54 -0.25%  |  Dow: 50,906.05 -0.86%  |  Nasdaq: 26,861.06 +0.24%

A mixed end to the quarter. These are Wednesday's closes. ADP said private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, up from a revised 36,000 in August, and the government's report on Friday is expected to show 84,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment. At 7:50 AM PT Thursday the S&P was down 0.13%, the Dow down 0.38% and the Nasdaq down 0.03%.

Micron's memory boom. After the bell, the memory maker reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $54.23 billion, nearly five times the $11.32 billion of a year earlier, with adjusted earnings of $33.42 a share, and guided to about $61.5 billion for the current quarter. AI data centers are buying memory as fast as it can be made, which is good news for Micron and less so for the price of your next laptop. The shares are down 1.3% this morning anyway.

10-Year Treasury: 5.29% +0.03  |  Gold: $4,186.70 +0.17%  |  Silver: $60.57 -0.96%  |  Brent Crude: $98.03 +1.94%

The 10-Year's highest close since 2002. It closed at 5.29% Wednesday, up three basis points and the highest since May 14, 2002. Higher U.S. yields are pulling money into the dollar: the euro is near $1.13 this morning, its lowest in more than a year.

Europe's inflation jumped. Spain's harmonised rate hit 5.0% in September, Italy's 4.1%, France's 3.4% and Germany's 3.3%, all up from August and all above the European Central Bank's 2% target, which it has raised rates twice this year to defend. For scale, consumer prices in the U.S. and the San Francisco area both rose 3.4% in the year to August. The euro area figure comes Friday.

Metals and oil. December gold settled up 0.17% and silver down 0.96%. The Brent card now tracks December, the new front month: it settled at $98.03, up 1.94% from its own Tuesday settle of $96.16. The newsletter's $103.50 was November's last day before it expired. At 7:50 AM PT Thursday gold was up 0.41%, silver up 1.77% and December Brent up 2.82%.

Bitcoin: $83,889 +0.16%  |  Ethereum: $2,686.08 +0.34%  |  XRP: $1.48 -1.15%

Bitcoin's quarter is in the books. Bitcoin closed the third quarter at $83,580 at 5 PM PT Wednesday, up 42.8% from June 30, its best quarter since late 2024 and its first winning quarter in a year. It still ended about 33% below last October's record close and 4.5% below where 2026 began. Prices are live from Coinbase at 7:50 AM PT.