"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/29/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.50% +0.07  |  15-Year Fixed: 7.12% +0.02

Rates set another high for the year. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year rose to 7.50% on Monday, the highest since April 2024, and the 15-year reached 7.12%. The 10-Year Treasury closed at 5.24%, its highest close since June 2007. The 30-year started September at 6.89%, so on a $1,090,000 home with 20% down the payment is about $360 a month higher than four weeks ago.

Landlords are stepping back. In a ResiClub and LendingOne survey of 216 single-family rental owners, 65% expect the 30-year to average above 6.5% over the next year, up from 11% in late 2025, and 44% say they are unlikely to buy another rental in the next 12 months, the most in the survey's two years. 84% say rising insurance premiums cut into their cash flow.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,727 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 179 coming soon and 212 brand new. The five city ledger carries 703 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 617 on the market and 86 coming soon, down from 717 on Monday.

Fremont holds 254 live listings: 197 active, 33 coming soon and 24 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,199,990 at $769 a square foot and a typical listing out 29 days. Hayward carries 180, Milpitas 115, Newark 88 and Union City 66. Across all five cities the median is $1,090,000 at $675 a square foot, 283 homes are priced under a million, and 163 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

What it means for you. If you are buying and can carry today's payment, fewer investors in the market can mean less competition for the same homes. If you are selling, price for 7.5% money; 163 of the 617 homes on the market across these five cities have been listed 60 days or longer.

S&P 500: 7,683.69 -0.77%  |  Dow: 51,481.51 -0.67%  |  Nasdaq: 26,820.38 -0.92%

A lower Monday, a softer Tuesday. These are Monday's closes, as the 10-Year climbed to its highest close since 2007. At 8:35 AM PT Tuesday the S&P was down 0.20%, the Dow down 0.50% and the Nasdaq down 0.04%.

Nvidia's record buyback. Nvidia's board approved another $150 billion for share buybacks on Monday, which the company calls the largest authorization increase in history, lifting what it has left to spend to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. That tops Apple's $110 billion from 2024. The Santa Clara chipmaker's stock rose 1.68% on the day.

What Anthropic's prospectus shows. Reuters reported Monday that the San Francisco company's draft IPO prospectus, filed confidentially, shows a $42 billion net loss for 2025 on revenue that grew 12-fold to nearly $4.6 billion. About $34 billion of that was a non-cash accounting charge on its financing; the operating loss was $8.06 billion. Reuters says the offering could value the company at more than $2 trillion, with at least $518 billion committed to computing capacity over about a decade.

10-Year Treasury: 5.24% +0.07  |  Gold: $4,168.40 -3.54%  |  Silver: $61.72 -4.76%  |  Brent Crude: $105.28 +0.92%

Yields up, metals down. The cards are Monday's closes and settlements. December gold settled down 3.54% and silver 4.76% as the 10-Year rose to 5.24%; the newsletter had gold down just 0.01%. At 8:35 AM PT Tuesday gold was up 0.47% and Brent down 0.83%.

Oil's round trip is back on. Brent's front month averaged $65 a barrel in January, $104 in May and $85 in July, and September is back to $102 so far, after Bloomberg reported Iranian officials see little chance of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before November. The version circulating today mixes physical spot averages with one day's futures price; ours keeps every month on one basis. Here, San Francisco regular gas averaged $6.27 a gallon Monday, past May's peak and $1.84 above a year ago, per the EIA.

Bitcoin: $83,130 -0.26%  |  Ethereum: $2,680.75 +0.14%  |  XRP: $1.52 +1.49%

Mixed this morning. Bitcoin is down 0.26% over 24 hours and up about a third since mid-August. Citi and Coinbase said Monday that merchants on Spring by Citi will be able to take stablecoins at checkout, converted to dollars automatically, and Bloomberg reports Blockchain.com wants to list this year at a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation. Prices are live from Coinbase at 8:35 AM PT.