"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/28/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.43% -0.02  |  15-Year Fixed: 7.10% 0.00

Rates start the week where Friday left them. Mortgage News Daily has the 30-year at 7.43% and the 15-year at 7.10% as of September 25, with Monday's reading due this afternoon. The 10-Year was near 5.26% at 7:54 AM PT Monday, above Thursday's 5.18% close, which was already the highest since 2007.

Most California homes lost to fire were underinsured. A California Western School of Law professor, Kenneth Klein, obtained state Department of Insurance data on 74,070 fire claims on owner-occupied homes from 2018 to 2023. Of the homes destroyed, 71.3% were underinsured, by about 19% on average. Wildfire losses came up short 78% of the time and ordinary house fires 68%.

The weak link is the estimate. The insurer's own rebuild estimate at the point of sale ran below the final loss 75% to 95% of the time, and roughly 90% of the policies already carried extended or guaranteed replacement cost. Most homes destroyed in catastrophes still came up short.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,762 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 184 coming soon and 224 brand new. The five city ledger carries 717 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 630 on the market and 87 coming soon, up from 714 on Friday.

Fremont holds 257 live listings, unchanged over the weekend: 198 active, 37 coming soon and 22 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,199,400 at $777 a square foot and a typical listing out 30 days. Hayward carries 182, Milpitas 121, Newark 88 and Union City 69. Across all five cities the median is $1,089,500 at $679 a square foot, 291 homes are priced under a million, and 167 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

What it means for you. If you own, ask your insurer for a fresh replacement cost estimate rather than trusting the one written with the policy, and check whether extended replacement cost is on it. If you are buying, line up insurance quotes before your contingencies come off. If you are selling, a recent estimate is one less worry you can hand a buyer.

S&P 500: 7,743.41 +0.51%  |  Dow: 51,828.62 +0.93%  |  Nasdaq: 27,068.72 +0.48%

A lower Monday. These are Friday's closes. Monday opened lower: at 7:54 AM PT the Nasdaq was down 1.26%, the S&P 0.95% and the Dow 0.72%, with oil and Treasury yields both climbing.

Meta's big month, and its bigger bill. At Thursday's close Meta was up 36% for September, on pace for its best month since July 2013, on enthusiasm for its Muse AI app. It fell 3.33% Friday and another 4.36% this morning to $718.88, trimming the gain to about 26%. Capital spending went from $39.2 billion in 2024 to $72.2 billion in 2025, and Meta guides $130 billion to $145 billion for 2026. For plenty of Bay Area buyers, that stock is part of the down payment.

10-Year Treasury: 5.17% -0.01  |  Gold: $4,321.20 +0.54%  |  Silver: $64.80 +1.25%  |  Brent Crude: $104.32 -2.14%

Friday's numbers, Monday's reversal. The cards are Friday's closes and settlements. Monday reversed them: at 7:54 AM PT, Brent's November contract was up 2.63% at $107.06, taking back Friday's 2.14% drop, and gold was down 3.81% at $4,156.70 as the 10-Year climbed toward 5.26%.

Funflation is real, and it has a Bay Area premium. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores rose 10.7% in the year to August, against 6.0% for all retail, and Bank of America says hobby spending on its cards rose 7.9%. Here, recreation prices rose 7.5%, more than twice the area's 3.4% overall inflation and nearly three times the national 2.7%. Airline fares are up 23.4%; the 26.5% making the rounds was June's.

Bitcoin: $82,775 -2.14%  |  Ethereum: $2,659.22 -1.08%  |  XRP: $1.48 -2.46%

Sliding with everything else. Bitcoin is at $82,775, down 2.14% over 24 hours and at its lowest in a week, and Ether and XRP are lower too. The exchange Bitget said last Thursday that about $351.6 million was moved out of its hot wallets; it paused withdrawals and says its $464 million protection fund covers the loss. Prices are live from CoinGecko at 7:54 AM PT.