"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/23/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.26% +0.09  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.87% +0.04

Rates just hit a 52 week high. Mortgage News Daily has the 30-year at 7.26% as of today, up 0.09, and the 15-year at 6.87%, up 0.04. Both are sitting at the very top of their 52 week range, which makes this the most expensive day to lock a rate in a year.

The bond market did it. The 10-Year closed Tuesday at 4.96%, unchanged on the day, then pushed to 5.12% by 11:35 AM PT Wednesday. Mortgage backed securities weakened sharply alongside it, and mortgage rates follow that lead in hours, not days.

Buyers are stretching, and FHA is how. ResiClub, working with AEI Housing Center data, mapped which homebuilders lean on FHA loans, the government backed mortgage that allows as little as 3.5% down. At LGI Homes, a starter home builder whose average sale is $367,407, 53% of 2025 buyers used one. At Toll Brothers, where the average sale is $996,400, just 3% did. That split is price point, not strategy.

So how far does FHA reach here? I ran it against today's board. The 2026 FHA limit for a one unit home in Alameda County is $1,249,125, and Milpitas carries the same Santa Clara County ceiling. Measured against that limit, 413 of our 705 live listings, or 59%, are priced inside it. Hayward is the wide door at 80%. Fremont is exactly half, 126 of 253. Union City is tightest at 45%. FHA is not a fringe product in this market, it is a door into roughly six of every ten homes on the board.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,701 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 206 coming soon and 158 brand new. The five city ledger carries 705 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 610 already on the market and 95 coming soon.

Fremont holds 253 live listings, 199 active, 44 coming soon and 10 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,218,888 at $794 a square foot and a typical listing out 31 days. Hayward carries 184, Milpitas 112, Newark 90 and Union City 66. Across all five cities the median is $1,098,444 at $684 a square foot, 275 homes are priced under a million, and 171 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

What it means for you. The ledger held flat at 705, but coming soon jumped to 95 from 84, so next week's supply is already stacking up. Buyers: if you are going FHA, today's 52 week high in rates costs you more than the loan type does, and the 30-year FHA rate is 6.87%, a full 0.39 under the conventional 30-year. Run both before you choose. Sellers: 171 homes have been sitting 60 days or longer, and every tick up in rates shrinks the pool that can still afford your number. Price to today's rate, not to August's.

S&P 500: 7,764.64 -0.00%  |  Dow: 51,863.69 -0.36%  |  Nasdaq: 27,244.28 +0.45%

A split Tuesday, then a rate shock Wednesday. The Nasdaq added 0.45% Tuesday while the Dow gave up 0.36% and the S&P finished dead flat, six hundredths of a point off Monday's close.

Wednesday is a different market. By 11:35 AM PT the S&P was down 0.70% at 7,710.67, the Dow off 0.59% at 51,557.09 and the Nasdaq down 1.10% at 26,945.28. Rate sensitive growth names fall hardest when the 10-Year moves this fast.

10-Year Treasury: 4.96% unchanged  |  Gold: $4,324.00 -1.20%  |  Silver: $65.05 -2.23%  |  Brent Crude: $99.25 -1.09%

One number drove the whole day. The 10-Year pushed to 5.12% by late morning, about 15 basis points above Tuesday's 4.96% close. Mortgage rates jumped, stocks fell, and metals took the worst of it.

Gold is down 1.20% to $4,324 and silver down 2.23% to $65.05 as of 11:35 AM PT. Both had been grinding higher for weeks. Metals pay no interest, so they look worse every time bonds pay more.

Brent settled Tuesday at $99.25, down 1.09%, a second straight decline from last week's run above $100.

Bitcoin: $84,157 -2.50%  |  Ethereum: $2,661.18 -3.16%  |  XRP: $1.49 -5.52%

Crypto gave back the week. Bitcoin is at $84,157, down 2.50% over 24 hours, after closing Monday at its highest level since August. Ether is off 3.16% and XRP is the worst of the three at 5.52% lower.

Same cause. When Treasuries suddenly pay 5.12%, the riskiest assets get sold first, and crypto sits at that end of the shelf. These are live from CoinGecko as of 11:35 AM PT.