"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/21/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.20% +0.01  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.83% +0.02

Rates start the week where Friday left them. Mortgage News Daily had the 30-year at 7.20% and the 15-year at 6.83% as of September 18, with Monday's reading due this afternoon. The 10-Year is lending a hand this morning, trading just under 5% after Friday's 5.01% close.

One of the country's biggest builders is discounting out loud. Lennar said last week that its average home sold for $372,000 after about 12.0% in incentives, that new orders fell 9% from a year ago, and that it is trimming its full year delivery target to roughly 80,000 to 81,000 homes, from 82,000 to 83,000. The stock fell 4.10% Friday and is down about 26% this year.

Lennar's average home sells for less than a third of Fremont's median, so this is not head to head competition. But your buyers read the same headlines, and when a national builder is paying 12% to get deals closed, the buyer at your open house walks in expecting somebody to blink.

The local math. At Fremont's median list price of $1,200,000, 10% down means a $1,080,000 loan, still under Alameda County's $1,249,125 high-balance conforming limit. At 7.20%, principal and interest alone run about $7,331 a month, and every eighth of a point is about $92. Keeping that to 30% of gross pay takes about $293,000 a year, before property tax, insurance and mortgage insurance.

Today's count. Board wide: 2,763 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 193 coming soon and 223 brand new. The five city ledger carries 717 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 632 already on the market and 85 coming soon.

Fremont holds 254 live listings, 200 active, 37 coming soon and 17 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,200,000 at $794 a square foot and a typical listing out 31 days. Hayward carries 188, Milpitas 114, Newark 92 and Union City 69. Across all five cities the median is $1,098,444 at $680 a square foot, 286 homes are priced under a million, and 167 have been sitting 60 days or longer, up from 161 yesterday.

What it means for you. The ledger held at 717, but the pile of homes past 60 days grew again, the slow drain I charted yesterday showing up in the daily count. Buyers: when the biggest builders are paying 12% to close, asking a seller to help with a rate buydown is a normal request, not an insult. Sellers: past 30 days in Fremont, the conversation is price, not patience.

S&P 500: 7,650.50 +0.17%  |  Dow: 51,682.64 -0.18%  |  Nasdaq: 26,522.54 +0.39%

Those are Friday's closes, and Monday is off to a strong start. By 8:58 AM PT the Nasdaq was up 1.71%, the S&P up 1.12% and the Dow up 0.45%, with oil sliding for a fourth straight session and the 10-Year slipping back under 5%. The Nasdaq leading the Dow by more than a full point tells you where the buying is.

10-Year Treasury: 5.01% +0.07  |  Gold: $4,424.90 +1.01%  |  Silver: $67.15 +2.19%  |  Brent Crude: $103.87 -0.91%

Japan just raised rates to a 31 year high. The Bank of Japan took its benchmark to 1.25% on Friday, the highest since 1995 and its sixth increase since March 2024, counting the move out of negative rates. The vote was 7 to 2, and it takes effect September 24, after three Japanese holidays.

Why a Fremont buyer should care. Japan owns more U.S. Treasuries than any other country, $1.10 trillion as of July by the Treasury's own count, and it has trimmed about $82 billion of them since the end of 2025. When Japanese bonds pay more at home, some of that money stays home, and fewer buyers for Treasuries tends to mean higher yields. Your mortgage rate follows the 10-Year, not the Fed.

A correction on oil. Sunday's post said Brent fell 5.28% on Friday to $99.29. That number belonged to the December contract. The front month contract, the one I report, settled Friday at $103.87, down 0.91%, and Sunday's post has been corrected. This morning the drop is real: Brent is trading near $100, down about 3.7% for a fourth straight losing session.

Gold and silver both gave back just under 1% this morning after Friday's gains, gold near $4,387 and silver near $66.64.

Bitcoin: $86,009 +6.29%  |  Ethereum: $2,760.15 +5.71%  |  XRP: $1.50 +7.78%

Crypto is the big mover this morning. Bitcoin is up 6.29% over the past 24 hours, Ethereum up 5.71% and XRP up 7.78%, the biggest move of the three. These are live as of 8:56 AM PT.