"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/17/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.24% +0.02  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.84% +0.02

What it costs locally. The 10-Year closed Wednesday at 5.01%, its highest close since July 2007, and eased to about 4.95% this morning. At Fremont’s median list price of $1,250,000, a 20% down loan is $1,000,000, under Alameda County’s $1,249,125 high-balance conforming limit. At 7.24%, principal and interest run about $6,815 a month, $34 more than at Wednesday morning’s 7.19%, and every eighth of a point is about $85.

Buyers are pausing. The Mortgage Bankers Association says applications fell 4.1% in the week ending September 11, with purchase applications down 1% and refinances down 9%. Refinances are 65% below a year ago, and MBA’s 30-year average reached 6.97%, its highest since May 2025. The newsletter called that average “over 7%”; MBA’s own survey is just under it, while MND’s daily index is above.

For more on what the hike means for Bay Area buyers and sellers, including the next Fed meeting dates, read my full write up: What the Fed hike means for Bay Area buyers and sellers.

Locally, supply ticked up. Board wide: 2,730 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 203 coming soon and 195 brand new. The five city ledger carries 708 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 615 already on the market and 93 coming soon, two more than Wednesday.

Fremont holds 258 live listings, 202 active, 43 coming soon and 13 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,250,000 at $805 a square foot and a typical active listing 29 days out. Behind it: Hayward 181, Milpitas 120, Newark 88 and Union City 61. Across all five cities the median is $1,099,000 at $687 a square foot, 272 homes are under a million, and 158 have been sitting 60 days or longer, down from 167.

Union City added five listings, the biggest move in the ledger. Buyers: with fewer people applying for loans, the line at the open house may be shorter, so refresh your approval at today’s rates before you write. Sellers: the buyers still shopping are pricing in 7%, so price for today’s rates, not last spring’s.

S&P 500: 7,551.81 -0.45%  |  Dow: 51,461.90 -1.21%  |  Nasdaq: 25,978.43 -0.01%

Stocks slipped on Fed day Wednesday, with the Dow off 1.21% and the Nasdaq about flat, then bounced Thursday morning. At 8:45 AM PT the S&P was up 1.10% at 7,634.67, the Dow up 0.65% and the Nasdaq up 1.62%. Weekly jobless claims came in at 196,000 for the week ending September 12, down 10,000, so the job market is still holding up.

Two big movers. J.B. Hunt fell 13.30% Wednesday after the trucking company warned its third quarter earnings will drop 5% to 10% from the second quarter, citing higher fuel and driver costs. Generac jumped after the bell on a deal to supply backup generators for Amazon’s data centers that also gives Amazon the right to buy up to $340 million of Generac stock; it traded near $249 late Wednesday and about $209 this morning, still up about 19%.

10-Year Treasury: 5.01% +0.01  |  Gold: $4,302.50 -0.71%  |  Silver: $63.42 -1.19%  |  Brent: $105.83 -2.69%

The Fed’s new target range of 3.75% to 4.00% is now in effect. Its next two meetings are October 27 to 28 and December 8 to 9, and the Fed’s own projections from Wednesday point to one more quarter point increase this year. The Labor Department’s weekly report showed 196,000 new unemployment claims, 10,000 fewer than the week before.

Oil and metals. Brent settled at $105.83 Wednesday, down 2.69%, and was near $103.59 this morning. At Wednesday’s 1:00 PM PT print gold fell 0.71% to $4,302.50 and silver fell 1.19% to $63.42; both bounced overnight, with gold at $4,399.60 and silver at $66.30 as of 8:35 AM PT.

A note on today’s newsletter numbers: its stocks and mortgage rates check out. It had the 10-Year at 4.99%, down 0.01, where Treasury shows a 5.01% close, up 0.01. It had Brent up 0.08% at $105.91, where the settlement was $105.83, down 2.69%, and gold at $4,347, down 0.90%, where the 1:00 PM PT print was $4,302.50, down 0.71%. Silver was left out again.

Bitcoin: $76,726 +1.36%  |  Ethereum: $2,470.05 +3.34%  |  XRP: $1.31 +3.12%

Live quotes pulled at 8:45 AM PT with 24 hour changes. All three are higher this morning, led by Ether, up about 3%.

A quieter Wednesday. After Tuesday’s stalled Senate vote on the Clarity Act, Bitcoin stayed between about $75,600 and $76,150 through Wednesday afternoon, Fed decision included. The newsletter showed small gains for all three as of 4:00 PM ET Wednesday; against Tuesday at the same hour, Bitcoin was down 0.14% and Ether 0.33%, while XRP was up 0.36%.