"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/16/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.19% -0.03  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.81% -0.01

What comes next. The Fed’s statement says inflation “remains elevated.” Its new projections put the rate at 4.1% at the end of this year and again at the end of next year, up from 3.8% and 3.6% in June. In plain terms, the typical Fed official now expects one more quarter point increase this year and no net change in 2027.

What it means for mortgages. The Fed does not set mortgage rates, and this hike was widely expected, so much of it was already built in. Mortgage News Daily had the 30-year at 7.19% and the 15-year at 6.81% this morning, before the announcement, just under Tuesday’s one year highs of 7.22% and 6.82%. The 10-Year closed Tuesday at 5.00%, its first close at 5% or higher since July 2007, and was near 4.96% after the decision. At Fremont’s median list price of $1,250,000, a 20% down loan is $1,000,000, under Alameda County’s $1,249,125 high-balance conforming limit; at 7.19%, principal and interest run about $6,781 a month, and every eighth of a point is about $85.

Locally, supply held. Board wide: 2,722 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 210 coming soon and 242 brand new. The five city ledger carries 706 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 611 already on the market and 95 coming soon, one fewer than Tuesday.

Fremont holds 259 live listings, 197 active, 41 coming soon and 21 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,250,000 at $816 a square foot and a typical active listing 29 days out. Behind it: Hayward 179, Milpitas 123, Newark 89 and Union City 56. Across all five cities the median is $1,100,000 at $690 a square foot, 264 homes are under a million, and 167 have been sitting 60 days or longer, up from 165.

Fremont thinned to 259 from 265 while Hayward, Milpitas and Newark added listings. Buyers in contract: check in with your lender this afternoon, since lenders can reprice after a Fed day. Sellers: the hike was expected and rates are already near 7%, so price for 7% and let condition do the talking.

S&P 500: 7,585.73 -0.45%  |  Dow: 52,093.11 -0.63%  |  Nasdaq: 25,981.57 -0.78%

Stocks fell for a second day Tuesday as the 10-Year crossed 5%, with the Nasdaq off 0.78%. After the Fed’s announcement, at 11:36 AM PT, the S&P was roughly flat at 7,580.89, giving back its morning gain, the Dow was down 0.49% and the Nasdaq held up 0.28%.

Crypto stocks took the biggest hit. Coinbase fell 10.10% and Circle 11.41% Tuesday after the Senate vote on the crypto rules bill fell short (more below), and both are lower again today.

10-Year Treasury: 5.00% +0.03  |  Gold: $4,333.40 -0.15%  |  Silver: $64.18 +0.66%  |  Brent: $108.75 +2.90%

Today’s two economy charts are about budgets, one for the Pentagon and one for families.

CBO’s estimate. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the conflict with Iran added about $38.1 billion to Defense Department costs from February 28 through August 1. More than half, $21.6 billion, is the cost of replacing munitions, led by $13.1 billion for missile defense interceptors; extra flying hours added $10.4 billion and higher fuel prices $2.7 billion. CBO says each additional month would cost $2 billion to $3 billion, depending on intensity. The graphic going around shows five of the seven categories and labels the total as what “the U.S. spent”; CBO’s figure covers only the Pentagon’s added costs, and our chart shows all seven.

For parents. Trump Accounts, the new IRS savings accounts for children, can take up to $5,000 a year, and 2026 money has to be in by December 31. Employers can put in up to $2,500 per employee, but that counts inside the $5,000, not on top of it as the newsletter said. U.S. citizen children born 2025 through 2028 can also get a one time $1,000 Treasury deposit that does not count toward the cap, and putting in more than the limit triggers a 6% yearly tax on the extra.

Oil and metals. Brent settled at $108.75 Tuesday, up 2.9%, and was near $105.57, late this morning. At Tuesday’s 1:00 PM PT print gold slipped 0.15% to $4,333.40 and silver rose 0.66% to $64.18; after the Fed decision, at 11:26 AM PT, gold was $4,358.30 and silver $64.31.

A note on today’s newsletter numbers: its stocks and mortgage rates check out. It had the 10-Year at 4.98%, down 0.01, where Treasury shows a 5.00% close, up 0.03, though its own headline says yields topped 5%. It had Brent at $107.83, down 0.85%, where the settlement was $108.75, up 2.90%, and gold up 0.40% where the same time prints show a 0.15% dip. Silver was left out again.

Bitcoin: $75,566 -1.42%  |  Ethereum: $2,400.00 -1.11%  |  XRP: $1.28 -8.37%

Live quotes pulled at 11:33 AM PT with 24 hour changes. XRP is down about 8% over the day, and Bitcoin and Ether are down about 1%.

The Clarity Act stalled. Tuesday’s Senate procedural vote went 49 to 50, short of the 60 needed to move the bill forward. The bill would define how federal agencies regulate different kinds of crypto and give the CFTC new authority over crypto spot markets. XRP fell from about $1.39 to $1.29 during Tuesday’s session. The newsletter’s crypto prices match Tuesday afternoon, but its small gains do not: against Monday at the same hour, Bitcoin was down about 3.6%, Ether 5.0% and XRP 11.5%.