"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/15/26

30-Year Fixed: 7.17% unchanged  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.70% unchanged

The 10-Year touched 5%. It traded as high as 5.01% Monday, its first trip to 5% since October 2023, and closed at 4.97%, its highest close since then. It was back above 5% this morning. Mortgage News Daily has the 30-year at 7.17% and the 15-year at 6.70%, Monday’s readings and the highest of the past year, and mortgage rates follow the 10-Year.

The Fed decides Wednesday at 11 AM PT. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a quarter-point hike at 92.3%, up from 48.4% a month ago. A hike would lift the range to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first increase since 2023. At Fremont’s median list price of $1,249,500, a 20% down loan is $999,600, under Alameda County’s $1,249,125 high-balance conforming limit; at 7.17%, principal and interest run about $6,765 a month, and every eighth of a point is about $84.

Locally, supply held. Board wide: 2,737 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 209 coming soon and 268 brand new. The five city ledger carries 707 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 611 already on the market and 96 coming soon, the same total as Monday.

Fremont holds 265 live listings, 201 active, 41 coming soon and 23 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,249,500 at $823 a square foot and a typical active listing 28 days out. Behind it: Hayward 175, Milpitas 120, Newark 87 and Union City 60. Across all five cities the median is $1,100,000 at $698 a square foot, 265 homes are under a million, and 165 have been sitting 60 days or longer, up from 160.

More of the market is waiting: coming soon rose to 96 from 91. Buyers in contract should talk to their lender before Wednesday’s Fed decision. Sellers: price for 7%, because that is where rates are.

S&P 500: 7,619.98 -0.48%  |  Dow: 52,421.20 -0.29%  |  Nasdaq: 26,186.41 -0.56%

Stocks slipped Monday and are lower again Tuesday as the Fed’s two day meeting begins: at 8:17 AM PT the S&P was down 0.49%, the Dow 0.96% and the Nasdaq 0.69%.

Banks took the hit. Bank of America fell about 5% after CEO Brian Moynihan said third quarter trading revenue should be roughly flat with last year’s $5.4 billion and investment banking fees could land at $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, down more than 10% and below the roughly $2 billion analysts expected.

AI’s power bill. Moody’s says U.S. data centers need 45 gigawatts of new power plants by 2030, costing $110 billion: more than 30 gigawatts of natural gas, most of the rest solar and battery storage, and nuclear restarts no more than 5%. It estimates the buildout adds $25 billion to $30 billion a year to U.S. electricity costs, with data centers paying up to $15 billion of it directly. The graphic making the rounds splits out about 13 gigawatts of solar; Moody’s gives no such figure, so ours does not either.

10-Year Treasury: 4.97% +0.01  |  Gold: $4,340.00 -1.56%  |  Silver: $63.76 -2.19%  |  Brent: $105.68 +1.02%

The Fed is reacting to inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.4% over the past year in August. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3% in the month, faster than July’s 0.2%, and that is what pushed the hike odds up.

The long view holds. Inflation is far below the 9.1% peak of June 2022, but the headline turned back up this year, from 2.4% in January to 4.2% in May and 3.4% now, while core, at 2.4%, is the lowest since March 2021.

The category chart making the rounds gets two labels wrong. Its “diesel fuel, up 52%” is fuel oil, the home heating oil index; diesel sits in other motor fuel, up 44%. Its “transportation, up 2.4%” is transportation services; transportation overall, gasoline included, is up 6.2%. The rest checks out: gasoline up 27.4%, energy 16.3%, clothing 3.6%, shelter 3.0%, food 2.7% and new vehicles 0.6%.

Short term rates have already moved. The 3-month Treasury bill closed Monday at 4.11%, above the top of the Fed’s 3.50% to 3.75% range and up from about 3.7% in the first five months of the year. The market has priced in the hike, and the Treasury now pays about 4.1% to roll over its bills.

Oil and metals. Brent settled at $105.68 Monday, up 1.0%, and was near $103.14 Tuesday morning. At Monday’s 1:00 PM PT print gold fell 1.6% to $4,340.00 and silver 2.2% to $63.76.

A note on today’s newsletter numbers: its stocks and mortgage rates check out. It had the 10-Year at 4.99% against Treasury’s 4.97%, gold down 1.68% where the same time prints show a 1.56% drop, and Brent up 1.54% at $106.22 where the settlement was $105.68, up 1.02%. Silver was left out again.

Bitcoin: $75,976 -3.13%  |  Ethereum: $2,411.53 -3.64%  |  XRP: $1.39 -0.75%

Live quotes pulled at 8:17 AM PT with 24 hour changes. All three are giving back Monday’s jump.

The Senate holds a procedural vote on the Clarity Act today at 11:15 AM PT. It needs 60 votes, so even with all 53 Republicans it needs at least seven Democrats or independents. Sponsors released final text Monday with 126 changes Democrats asked for, and a loss would sharply cut the bill’s chances of becoming law this year.