"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/09/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.89% unchanged  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.49% unchanged

Three sessions, no movement. Mortgage News Daily has the 30-year at 6.89% and the 15-year at 6.49%, both unchanged again on Tuesday. The 10-Year Treasury drifted up to 4.80%, its highest close in over a week, so the gentle pressure is upward rather than down.

The development that actually touches a remodel budget is a trade story. Canada's counter tariffs took effect yesterday, and they land on things that go into houses: 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on appliances such as washers and dryers, 15% on machinery parts and air conditioners.

Two things the tidy version circulating today gets wrong. First, the direction: these are Canadian tariffs on goods heading north, so the direct hit falls on U.S. exporters. What reaches a Bay Area renovation is the second order effect, through cross border supply chains and a steel market already at record prices. Second, the currency: the order covers C$27.6 billion of imports. Reported as an unmarked “$27.6B” it reads as U.S. dollars, and at today’s exchange rate the real figure is about US$20 billion, roughly 38% smaller than it appears.

Locally, inventory climbed for a third straight day. Board wide: 2,640 listings across the 15 city table, counting active and in contract together, with 220 coming soon and 144 brand new. The five city ledger carries 698 live listings across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, 598 already on the market and 100 coming soon, up from 695 yesterday with 82 arriving in the past week.

Fremont holds 267 live listings, 207 active, 41 coming soon and 19 brand new, with a median on market list price of $1,218,444 at $823 a square foot and a typical active listing 27 days out. Behind it: Hayward 186, Milpitas 114, Newark 77 and Union City 54. Across all five cities the median is $1,075,485 at $694 a square foot, 276 homes are under a million, and 159 have been sitting 60 days or longer.

Put those two threads together and the seller math gets sharper. Better than one in four homes on the market has waited two months or more, while the cost of the appliances and steel in a pre-listing renovation just went up. That is an argument for pricing correctly on day one rather than remodeling your way toward a number the market has already declined once.

S&P 500: 7,673.52 -0.58%  |  Dow: 52,786.07 -1.18%  |  Nasdaq: 26,421.41 -0.32%

Tuesday was a broad step back, with the Dow taking the worst of it at more than a percent. As of 9:21 AM PT this morning the slide has continued: the S&P near 7,628, the Dow near 52,328 and the Nasdaq near 26,212, all below Tuesday’s close. Those are live intraday quotes and will move before the bell.

Apple is expected to unveil its first foldable iPhone today, a passport sized device with a 7.8 inch inner screen priced well above the $799 base model, reportedly targeting 7 to 10 million units. Huawei and Xiaomi launched foldables of their own on Monday. Elsewhere, Qualcomm is teaming with Amazon to put its chips in AWS data centers, and GE Aerospace is buying parts supplier Consolidated Precision Products for $11.75 billion.

10-Year Treasury: 4.80% +0.02  |  Gold: $4,400.00 -1.71%  |  Silver: $66.38 -0.56%  |  Brent: $97.92 +1.70%

Gold gave back 1.7% on Tuesday to close near $4,400 an ounce, its sharpest drop in over a week, while silver held up better just above $66. Brent settled at $97.92 and is trading above $100 this morning.

A useful read on how new technology actually gets adopted. McKinsey asked 5,500 farmers across 10 countries about AI, and 17% now use generative AI in farm work, making it the fastest spreading technology in agriculture. The catch sits in the split: of that 17%, about 12 points are using free versions and only 4 points pay for a tool.

The more interesting number is trust. Only 6% of farmers treat an AI chatbot as a trusted input when deciding what to buy, which sounds dismissive until you learn it was 1% in 2024, making it the fastest growing purchasing input in the survey. For scale, web search sits at 18% and social media at 9%. That pattern travels well beyond farming: people try a new tool enthusiastically, stay on the free version, and take considerably longer before letting it influence a decision that costs money.

A note on today’s newsletter numbers, because two did not hold up. It put the 10-Year at 4.79% and up 0.01, while Treasury’s own daily curve shows 4.80% against Friday’s 4.78%, a move of 0.02. It had Brent at $99.27 against the ICE front month settlement of $97.92. Gold at $4,401 was right this time, and silver was omitted again.

Bitcoin: $78,511 -0.11%  |  Ethereum: $2,485.59 -0.10%  |  XRP: $1.41 -1.04%

Live quotes pulled at 9:21 AM PT with 24 hour changes. All three sit close to flat, with Bitcoin hovering near $78,500 for a third day. After two days of corrections here, credit where due: the newsletter’s crypto levels were accurate today.

Visa is pushing further into stablecoin cards, which let holders spend dollar pegged crypto like cash; it already runs more than 160 such programs. Robinhood is going bigger on prediction markets, taking stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com. Worth watching rather than acting on, since several states are moving to ban prediction markets over consumer protection concerns.