"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/05/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.89% ▲ 0.01%  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.49% ▲ 0.01%

The jobs report moved the rate conversation more than it moved rates. Both figures above are Friday’s close. Mortgage News Daily does not publish on weekends, so this is what carries into Monday. The 30 year sits two basis points under its 52 week high of 6.91%.

What changed on Friday. Fed funds futures now put 58.4% odds on the Fed raising its target a quarter point at the September 16 meeting, 41.6% on no change, and 0.0% on a cut. The day before the jobs report those hike odds were 49.4%. A stronger labor market gives the Fed more room to move, so the odds jumped about nine points in a single session.

Two things worth keeping straight. The Fed does not set mortgage rates. The 10 year Treasury does most of that work, and a move the market already expects is not the same as a surprise. And the real test is not behind us: the August inflation report lands Friday, September 11 at 5:30 AM Pacific, and that number is more likely to settle the September 16 question than the jobs data was.

What it means locally. Rates near the top of their yearly range are why buyer traffic is deliberate rather than frantic. Correctly priced homes are still moving, and the coming soon queue says sellers are positioning for fall rather than stepping back.

Live inventory, September 5. Board wide: 2,627 listings across the 15 city board, counting everything active alongside everything in contract, with 220 coming soon and 163 brand new today. That is 19 fewer than yesterday. The five city live ledger carries 686 homes across Fremont, Hayward, Milpitas, Newark and Union City, down 8 from yesterday: Fremont 261, Hayward 184, Milpitas 114, Newark 76, Union City 51. Fremont alone is holding 43 coming soon and Milpitas 29, so the fall pipeline is still building even as the live count eases.

The August jobs report, and what is actually in it. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August against a consensus near 53,000. It was the best month since March, a sharp step up from July’s 21,000, and it brings the 2026 total to 643,000.

Two surveys disagreed this week. ADP had private payrolls up just 38,000 on Wednesday, its smallest gain since January. The government’s Friday number came in more than four times higher. When the two split this widely the honest read is that the truth sits somewhere between them, and the next couple of reports matter more than usual.

Unemployment held at 4.1% for a second month, down from the 4.5% peak last November.

The number that matters for rates is wages. Average hourly earnings rose 3.09% over the year, $37.75 against $36.62 last August. That is the slowest wage growth since May 2021, and it is running a little behind inflation, which was 3.4% in the July CPI. Context worth keeping: 3.1% is roughly where wage growth sat through 2019. This reads as a return to normal rather than a break.

Where the hiring was. Leisure and hospitality added 62,000, government 35,000, construction 22,000 and manufacturing 16,000. Construction is the line that matters most for housing supply. On the other side, information lost 23,000 and financial activities lost 11,000.

On layoffs, the picture is better than the headline suggests. Challenger counted 52,881 announced cuts in August, up 58% from July but down 38% from a year ago, and the lowest August total since 2022. Through August the year’s cuts are down 41% from 2025, and announced hiring plans are up 37%. Artificial intelligence remains the leading reason cited year to date at 116,175 cuts, about 22% of the total, though in August it fell to fourth at 3,462, its quietest month since December 2025.

A note on these charts. All four were rebuilt directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics rather than reusing the versions circulating this week, and every figure checked out. One difference is deliberate: October 2025 has no unemployment reading, so our line shows a dashed gap where the widely shared version draws a solid line straight through it.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.