"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/04/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.88% ▬ 0.00%  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.48% ▬ 0.00%

Rates held flat into the jobs report, and the jobs report just changed the math. Both figures above are Thursday’s close, because Mortgage News Daily publishes its daily survey around 4 PM Eastern. Today’s reaction is not in that number yet.

What happened this morning. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August against a forecast near 53,000, roughly three times consensus. Unemployment held at 4.1%. July was revised from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000, and June was revised up as well.

The timing matters. Vice President Vance spent Thursday publicly pressing the Fed to cut rates to make housing more affordable, and the Fed meets September 15 and 16. A payrolls number three times consensus does not make a September cut more likely, it makes it less likely. The political pressure and the economic data now point in opposite directions, and the data usually wins that argument.

One thing keeping this from being worse for rates. The report was strong because people came back into the workforce, not because employers were bidding wages up: 683,000 people entered the labor force and participation rose two tenths of a point. That is why the ten year Treasury barely moved this morning and sits near 4.77%. But the direction of risk for mortgage rates over the next two weeks is now up, not down.

What it costs a buyer. On a $450,000 purchase with 20% down, the monthly payment is about $2,366 at 6.88%. If you have been floating a rate waiting on a September cut, this morning was the argument for locking.

Locally the board is carrying 2,646 listings across the 15 city board, counting everything active alongside everything in contract, with 208 coming soon and 146 brand new today, 4 more than yesterday. Our own 5 city ledger shows 694 homes a buyer can pursue right now, including 44 brand new listings and 103 more coming soon. The full, always-updating ledger lives at harvrealtor.net/live-inventory.

Today’s Live Inventory (buyable now)

• Fremont: 264 available (208 active, 15 new, 41 coming soon)
• Hayward: 188 available (157 active, 17 new, 14 coming soon)
• Milpitas: 113 available (83 active, 1 new, 29 coming soon)
• Newark: 76 available (58 active, 6 new, 12 coming soon)
• Union City: 53 available (41 active, 5 new, 7 coming soon)

Supply is not leaving, it is queuing. New listings stayed thin for a second day, 146 board wide against 154 yesterday and 192 on Wednesday, but coming soon climbed to 208 and Fremont alone is holding 41. That is the pipeline rebuilding for the back half of September. If you are listing in the next month, expect more competition in late September than you would face this week. If you are under contract and floating a rate, talk to your lender today.

10-Year Treasury: 4.77% ▼ 0.02%  |  Gold: $4,426 ▼ 0.37%  |  Silver: $65.93 ▼ 0.75%  |  Brent: $95.52 ▼ 0.12%

The jobs report undid this week’s rate cut trade. Yesterday’s ADP survey showed just 38,000 private jobs and set off a rally in gold, silver and crypto. This morning’s government report came in at 162,000 and that trade is unwinding. Gold is off about a third of a point, silver three quarters, and all three major cryptocurrencies are lower.

We said yesterday that Friday’s number would either confirm the ADP read or erase it. It erased it.

Two numbers had to be corrected against their source. The newsletter that circulated this morning put the ten year at 4.78%; Treasury’s daily curve has Thursday closing at 4.77%, and its own printed change of minus two basis points contradicts its own printed level. It put Brent at $95.85 and up 0.23%; ICE front month futures settled at $95.52, down 0.12%. That is the fourth day running that figure has come in wrong.

Japan’s consumer has been shrinking for eight months

Japanese household spending fell 3.6% in July from a year earlier, the eighth straight monthly decline and the steepest since January 2024. Economists expected about 1.6%. Fresh food prices are up about 7% and more increases are planned. Japan is the world’s fourth largest economy and one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries, so a consumer that keeps retrenching there is a slow drag on global growth and, eventually, on the demand side of our own bond market.

S&P 500: 7,748 ▲ 1.06%  |  DOW: 53,686 ▲ 1.18%  |  NASDAQ: 26,584 ▲ 1.40%

A strong Thursday across all three indexes. One correction: the newsletter put the NASDAQ at 26,587, up 1.47%. It actually closed at 26,584.06, up 1.40%. The S&P and DOW both reconcile exactly.

Tesla is running driverless Cybercabs in Austin, with 45 Cybercabs and 420 Teslas licensed to operate in Texas with nobody behind the wheel, against roughly 4,000 for Waymo. Oura filed to go public after its best quarter ever, and Adobe’s chief executive is stepping down December 1 after nineteen years.

The AI number everyone is quoting, and what it actually means

Anthropic is lining up a $15 billion credit line ahead of a possible public listing, and the figure attached to every story about it is $65 billion. That number is real but it is widely described wrong. It is an annualized revenue run rate as of July, meaning the latest period scaled up to a year. It is not $65 billion of revenue booked, it is not audited, and it is not a forecast of the calendar year. This morning’s newsletter called it a Bloomberg projection of yearly revenue, which is wrong twice over.

Taken for what it is, the growth is still remarkable: $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $65 billion by July. The chart puts every disclosure on a true date axis, which shows something the version going around does not. The fastest stretch was April to May, a single month that added $17 billion, and the widely circulated version left March out entirely.

Bitcoin: $78,924 ▼ 1.68%  |  Ethereum: $2,442 ▼ 1.52%  |  XRP: $1.39 ▼ 3.76%

Yesterday’s rally is giving back. Bitcoin touched $81,000 on Thursday, its highest since May, and is near $79,000 this morning. The mechanism is the same one running through gold: a strong jobs report means fewer Fed cuts. The Senate votes on the Clarity Act on September 15, and Revolut just won conditional approval for a U.S. national bank charter.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.