"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 09/03/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.88% ▼ 0.03%  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.48% ▼ 0.02%

Rates fell today, the first daily decline in a week. The 30 year eased three basis points to 6.88% and the 15 year two to 6.48%, per Mortgage News Daily. Keep the level in view though: Wednesday’s close set fresh 52 week highs at 6.91% and 6.50%, and MND’s own headline yesterday afternoon was that rates were approaching 7%.

The cause is a soft jobs number. ADP reported just 38,000 private jobs added in August against roughly 47,000 expected. Weak hiring raises the odds of Fed cuts, money moves into bonds, yields fall and mortgages follow. The ten year Treasury settled Wednesday at 4.79% and has traded near 4.75% since the release.

Do not over read one day. This is a three basis point move off a one year high, driven by a private payroll survey. The government’s own jobs report lands Friday with consensus near 53,000 and 4.1% unemployment. If it lands near that, today holds. If it surprises upward, this gets given back quickly.

What it costs a buyer. On a $450,000 purchase with 20% down, the monthly payment is about $2,366, roughly $7 below Wednesday’s peak and about $209 above February.

Locally the board is carrying 2,642 listings across the 15 city board, counting everything active alongside everything in contract, with 196 coming soon and 154 brand new today, 7 fewer than yesterday. Our own 5 city ledger shows 686 homes a buyer can pursue right now, including 42 brand new listings and 100 more coming soon. The full, always-updating ledger lives at harvrealtor.net/live-inventory.

Today’s Live Inventory (buyable now)

• Fremont: 260 available (206 active, 16 new, 38 coming soon)
• Hayward: 184 available (154 active, 15 new, 14 coming soon)
• Milpitas: 114 available (81 active, 3 new, 30 coming soon)
• Newark: 75 available (60 active, 3 new, 12 coming soon)
• Union City: 53 available (42 active, 5 new, 6 coming soon)

The quietest day for new listings in a while. Sixteen new in Fremont against 26 yesterday, and 154 board wide against 192. Meanwhile Fremont’s in contract count rose from 98 to 100. Fewer homes arriving and slightly more going under contract tightens things at the margin. If you are listing, the new supply this week is thin, which means less competition than the last two weeks. If you are floating a rate, this is a conversation to have with your lender today, not Monday.

10-Year Treasury: 4.79% ▬ 0.00%  |  Gold: $4,487 ▲ 3.88%  |  Silver: $67.15 ▲ 4.68%  |  Brent: $95.63 ▲ 1.04%

One number set the tone. ADP said private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August against roughly 47,000 expected, with gains in schools and hospitals, restaurants and hotels, and construction, while factories and business services shed workers.

Everything on this line is the market repricing rate cuts off that miss. Gold is up 3.9% and silver 4.7% this morning, both large single day moves. The ten year settled Wednesday unchanged at 4.79% but has traded near 4.75% since the release.

Two numbers had to be corrected against their source. The newsletter that circulated this morning put the ten year at 4.77%; Treasury’s own daily curve has Wednesday closing at 4.79%, flat against Tuesday, so its direction was right and its level was not. It put Brent at $95.50 and down 0.14%; ICE front month futures settled at $95.63, up 1.04%, which is wrong on both level and direction and the third day running that figure has come in wrong. Silver was left out entirely, as usual.

Private hiring cooled again in August

The government’s own payroll report lands Friday, with consensus near 53,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment. That is the number that will actually move mortgage rates next.

S&P 500: 7,666 ▲ 0.46%  |  DOW: 53,061 ▲ 0.56%  |  NASDAQ: 26,217 ▲ 0.45%

A green day across all three indexes. Uber is cutting 10% of its roughly 34,000 staff and 20% of its management layers, saying too many handoffs slow decisions. Investors approved, and it is one more tech employer shrinking in a week when the labor data went soft.

Broadcom’s AI roadmap, and what is actually banked

Broadcom expects its AI revenue to roughly double twice, to $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and $230 billion in fiscal 2028, after raising fiscal 2026 guidance to $58 billion. Last quarter’s AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7 billion, up 221% from a year ago and 56% of everything the company sold. Management said demand already exceeds the 2027 target and that supply, not orders, is the constraint. The stock fell 0.66% anyway. One clarification worth making: this morning’s newsletter described the $230 billion as total revenue. It is AI revenue, on the same basis as the other figures.

Palo Alto’s big year, and its bad week

A true headline pointing the wrong way. Palo Alto Networks is up 78% in 2026, measured from its December 31 close of $184.20. It is also down 14% in the two sessions since Q4 earnings and now sits below where it closed in June. Both facts are on the chart, because the first one on its own would leave you with the wrong impression of the week.

Bitcoin: $81,184 ▲ 4.94%  |  Ethereum: $2,505 ▲ 4.64%  |  XRP: $1.46 ▲ 9.30%

A sharp move up, and it is the same trade as gold. Weak jobs data means a higher chance of rate cuts, and that lifts the assets that do best when money is cheap. This morning’s newsletter had all three roughly flat because its quotes predate the ADP release. On policy, the Senate votes on the Clarity Act on September 15 and the SEC has proposed new custody rules.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.