"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 08/27/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.75% ▬ unchanged  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.32% ▬ unchanged

Rates held for a second day, and the 15-year is trustworthy again. After last week's bad print and the quiet correction that followed, Mortgage News Daily has now shown it between 6.31% and 6.32% for four straight sessions.

Why rates are not moving, in one line. Core PCE inflation came in at 3.3% for July, a tenth above forecasts, against a Fed target of 2%. The chart in the Economy section below shows a full year of it. Anyone advising a client to wait for a big drop in mortgage rates should look at that gap first, because the Fed opens its Jackson Hole symposium today with exactly this reading in front of it.

New York is building for the wrong buyer. New condos for sale there are projected to fall 11% through 2029, while entry level units drop 74%. Builders are chasing luxury. It is a national pattern rather than a New York one, and it is the same squeeze that pushes first time buyers here toward townhomes and condos instead of detached houses.

Half of planned data centers may never get built. Kimmeridge Energy Management estimates 50% of U.S. projects are delayed or scrapped, with local opposition in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. We ran the data center map two days ago and made the point that those buildings compete with home building for crews, land and power. If half of them stall, some of that pressure comes off.

Locally the board is carrying 2,709 listings across the 15 city board, counting everything active alongside everything in contract, with 202 coming soon and 171 brand new today. Our own 5 city ledger shows 703 homes a buyer can pursue right now, including 42 brand new listings and 102 more coming soon. The full, always-updating ledger lives at harvrealtor.net/live-inventory.

Today’s Live Inventory (buyable now)

• Fremont: 281 available (220 active, 20 new, 41 coming soon)
• Hayward: 186 available (157 active, 12 new, 17 coming soon)
• Milpitas: 109 available (80 active, 0 new, 29 coming soon)
• Newark: 73 available (56 active, 7 new, 10 coming soon)
• Union City: 54 available (46 active, 3 new, 5 coming soon)

The streak ended, and what replaced it matters more. Fremont held exactly 102 listings in contract for three straight days; today it is 101. Meanwhile active supply jumped from 240 to 251, the largest one day gain in weeks, and the coming soon block fell from 46 to 41. Read those together and the mechanism is obvious: staged listings went live. Supply is now arriving faster than it is being absorbed.

For a seller listing this week, that means eleven more competitors than yesterday, with 20 Fremont listings brand new this morning. Pricing to the last comp is how a listing sits. Price instead to the buyer who has more to choose from today than they did last night. Median asking in Fremont is $1,299,000 at 27 median days on market, and Newark is the quickest of our five at 25 days.

US 10-Year: 4.66% ▲ 0.02%  |  Gold: $4,589 ▼ 0.56%  |  Silver: $68.34 ▼ 0.31%  |  Brent: $87.84 ▼ 0.84%

Core PCE is the number of the day. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose 3.3% from a year earlier in July, a tenth above what forecasters expected. Core inflation has now spent the entire year in a narrow band above 3% without once approaching the 2% target.

A note on how that line was built, because it differs slightly from the version circulating this morning. Each month's inflation rate gets revised after it is first published, so a chart that strings together seven original prints is really plotting seven different vintages. This one is recomputed from BEA's current index as one consistent series. The effect is small and confined to two months: March reads 3.3% here against the 3.2% first reported, and May reads 3.5% against 3.4%. July's 3.3% is unrevised, so the headline everyone is quoting is the same either way.

The ten year rose two basis points to 4.66%. This morning's newsletter printed 4.65% and called the change zero. Treasury's own daily curve has August 25 at 4.64% and August 26 at 4.66%, so the yield went up rather than sideways.

Brent settled at $87.84, down 0.84%, and the newsletter's $87.25 does not match the front month contract's settlement. Gold fell $26 to $4,589 and silver eased 21 cents to $68.34. Both of Fortune's day over day comparisons reconcile exactly against yesterday's figures. The newsletter's $4,685 gold print sits about $96 above the morning spot price and has the direction wrong as well.

S&P 500: 7,675 ▼ 0.02%  |  DOW: 53,463 ▼ 0.21%  |  NASDAQ: 26,130 ▼ 0.08%

A flat session that was really a holding pattern. All three indexes finished within a quarter of a percent of where they started, because the market was waiting on Nvidia after the bell and on Jackson Hole this morning. Every stock figure in the newsletter reconciled against the tape.

Nvidia delivered. Revenue was $96.2 billion for the quarter, up 106% from a year earlier, with data center sales up 117% to $89.0 billion. The company guided to $108 billion for the current quarter.

One correction against the version doing the rounds. Every bar here was read off NVIDIA's own releases, and the quarter ending October 2025 is $57.0 billion, not the $56.8 billion being circulated. NVIDIA headlines that quarter as "record revenue of $57.0 billion" and the same figure appears in its income statement.

Why a housing letter is showing you a chip company. Nvidia is now large enough that its capital spending moves national demand for electricity, construction labor and industrial land, the same three inputs that set the cost of building a house. The data center story in the Real Estate section above is the other end of this one.

Salesforce also beat and paired it with a deal to embed its systems inside Anthropic's Claude. The stock is still down roughly 19% on the year.

BTC: $80,187 ▲ 2.12%  |  ETH: $2,511 ▲ 1.39%  |  XRP: $1.45 ▲ 4.90%

A green morning across the board, with XRP leading at nearly 5%. One correction: the newsletter said Bitcoin "sits below $80,000" using quotes stamped Wednesday afternoon. It is above $80,000 as this is written, having added better than 2% overnight. Its crypto numbers were a day old again.

The theme underneath is the one the gold chart told yesterday. BlackRock's digital assets chief is describing Bitcoin as a store of value, and the moves are tracking worries about government debt more closely than any crypto legislation. When an asset starts trading on fiscal anxiety rather than its own adoption story, it has changed character.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.