"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 08/24/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.78% ▲ 0.01%  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.62% ▲ 0.01%

The 30-year fixed is 6.78% this morning, up a single basis point, per Mortgage News Daily. That figure cross checks cleanly against the other two boards: the Mortgage Bankers Association has the 30-year at 6.77% and Freddie Mac's weekly survey has it at 6.65%, both in a believable relationship to a daily index.

The 15-year still does not cross check, and this is the second session running we have flagged it. Mortgage News Daily shows 6.62%, up one basis point from Friday's 6.61%. Friday's print was a 31 basis point jump in a single session while the 30-year moved one basis point, and it has not reversed. That leaves only 16 basis points between the 30-year and the 15-year on their own board. Freddie Mac's survey has the 15-year at 5.95% and the Mortgage Bankers Association has it at 6.08%, and both of those put the normal gap near 70 basis points. We publish Mortgage News Daily because it is our source of record and it is a daily index rather than a weekly survey, but do not quote 6.62% to anyone without a live lender quote in hand.

Two national housing notes landed this morning, and they point the same direction. The skilled trades are short roughly 300,000 workers, and data center construction is now pulling crews off home building, so new supply stays thin. At the same time Gen Z retirement contributions are up 65% year over year, with buyers in that age band saying plainly that owning feels out of reach and investing is the faster path. Thin new supply above, a stalling first time buyer pipeline below, and the resale inventory in between carries the whole market.

Locally the board is carrying 2,717 active, BOMK, PCH and new listings across the 15 city board, with 187 coming soon and 230 brand new today. Our own 5 city ledger shows 703 homes a buyer can pursue right now, including 49 brand new listings and 99 more coming soon. The full, always-updating ledger lives at harvrealtor.net/live-inventory.

Today’s Live Inventory (buyable now)

• Fremont: 278 available (214 active, 21 new, 43 coming soon)
• Hayward: 187 available (157 active, 13 new, 16 coming soon)
• Milpitas: 112 available (82 active, 5 new, 25 coming soon)
• Newark: 73 available (61 active, 3 new, 9 coming soon)
• Union City: 53 available (40 active, 7 new, 6 coming soon)

The ledger opened the week at 703, down 23 from Friday's 726, with Fremont giving back 9 and Milpitas holding almost flat. Median asking runs from $849,000 in Hayward to $1,299,994 in Fremont. Fremont and Newark are tied as the quickest at 25 median days on market, while Hayward sits at 38. Across the wider board, 771 of the 2,717 listings are already pending, so roughly three in ten of everything on the board is spoken for.

US 10-Year: 4.69% ▼ 0.05%  |  Gold: $4,674 ▲ 1.90%  |  Silver: $69.18 ▼ 0.62%  |  Brent: $94.39 ▲ 0.65%

Start with the oil story, because this morning's version of it does not survive a look at the data. The newsletter reported that U.S. refinery output has been falling. The Energy Information Administration's weekly numbers say the opposite. Refiners ran 17.40 million barrels a day in the week ending August 14, the highest week of this year, above the 17.21 million of the same week last year and well clear of the 16.59 million five year average. Utilization is averaging 93.1% so far in 2026 against 90.0% last year.

The Canadian maintenance behind the story is real and worth watching, because Midwest refineries take roughly 70% of their crude from Canada, but the 300,000 barrels a day it is expected to cut has not shown up in national runs yet. Brent settled at $94.39 on Friday, up 0.65%, and the newsletter had that one exactly right.

Metals kept running. Gold reached $4,674 an ounce this morning, up 1.90% from Friday's $4,587, while silver eased to $69.18. The 10-Year Treasury is quoted at 4.69% mid session, five basis points below Friday's 4.74% close. Anyone tracking mortgage pricing should watch that line into Thursday, when the Fed gathers at Jackson Hole.

Ray Dalio's debt warning is the other headline, with federal spending running about 40% ahead of revenue. His prescription of spending cuts, higher taxes and lower rates all at once is not a package that passes before a crisis. The part that reaches housing is the last item, because mortgage pricing tracks the long end of the curve and a debt scare pushes that end the wrong way.

S&P 500: 7,660 ▼ 0.19%  |  DOW: 53,389 ▲ 0.21%  |  NASDAQ: 26,069 ▼ 0.42%

A mixed, quiet open to the week, with the Dow slightly green and the other two slightly red at mid session. These are 10:00 AM Pacific levels rather than a close, measured against Friday's settled finish. One correction to this morning's newsletter: it put the Dow's Friday close at 53,227 when the actual close was 53,277.01. Its percentage gain was right, so only the level was wrong, by 50 points.

The bigger story sits underneath the tape. S&P Global's flash survey put U.S. business activity at a 52 month high in August, with the composite output index at 56.0 against 54.5 in July. Services jumped to 56.8 while factory output slipped to 51.9, so the growth is coming from the service economy rather than from goods. S&P Global's chief business economist says the survey now points to third quarter growth approaching 3.0%, up from 1.5% in the second quarter, and that firms added jobs at the fastest rate since the start of last year.

Why a housing letter cares about a business survey. An economy accelerating toward 3% with employers hiring again is not an economy that gets a rate cut quickly. Strong growth keeps the long end of the curve elevated, and that is the end that sets mortgage pricing. Good news for jobs, patience required on rates. Nvidia reports Wednesday and the Fed meets at Jackson Hole starting Thursday, and Thursday is the day that moves a client's lock.

BTC: $79,266 ▲ 2.37%  |  ETH: $2,488 ▲ 1.50%  |  XRP: $1.51 ▲ 0.37%

Bitcoin is holding on to Friday's rally, trading at $79,266 after one of its best weeks in months, roughly 20%. Ether is at $2,488 and XRP at $1.51. These are live quotes taken this morning rather than Friday's close, because a full weekend of round the clock trading sits in between.

The interesting part is the disagreement about what comes next. After a 20% week, traders on Kalshi still see Bitcoin finishing 2026 near $75,000, which is below where it sits right now. A move that size barely moved their forecast, which says the market reads this as a rules driven repricing rather than a new trend. The Clarity Act is still working through Congress, and that is the thing to watch.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.