"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 08/20/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.76% ▲ 0.04%  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.30% ▲ 0.03%

Rates turned back up. The 30-year fixed added 4 basis points to 6.76% and the 15-year added 3 to 6.30%, per Mortgage News Daily. This morning's newsletter printed 6.72% and 6.27%, which were Tuesday's closing figures, so today's number is the live one.

Two housing datapoints landed together, and they say more as a pair. Toll Brothers signed 5% more contracts last quarter, and about a quarter of those buyers paid all cash. Those are people trading up from a home they already own, so a 6.76% rate never enters the decision. Meanwhile total mortgage applications slipped last week: refinances rose 2%, purchases fell 2%, with rates parked near 6.7% and buyers waiting for a bigger drop.

Read together they describe a split market rather than a slow one. The buyer who does not need a loan is transacting right now. The buyer who does is waiting for a number that has not arrived. That is why the luxury end keeps clearing while entry level sits, and it is the most useful thing to understand about our market this month. Waiting is a position, and it carries a cost that never appears on a settlement statement.

Locally the board is carrying 2,712 active, BOMK, PCH and new listings across the 15 city board, with 214 coming soon and 197 brand new today. Our own 5 city ledger shows 728 homes a buyer can pursue right now, including 54 brand new listings and 112 more coming soon. The full, always-updating ledger lives at harvrealtor.net/live-inventory.

Today’s Live Inventory (buyable now)

• Fremont: 288 available (217 active, 18 new, 52 coming soon)
• Hayward: 194 available (161 active, 14 new, 18 coming soon)
• Milpitas: 109 available (75 active, 8 new, 26 coming soon)
• Newark: 79 available (63 active, 7 new, 9 coming soon)
• Union City: 58 available (44 active, 7 new, 7 coming soon)

Inventory kept climbing, up 9 locally to 728 after yesterday's gain, with Fremont adding 7 and Union City 4. County wide the active count rose to 2,084 from 2,058. Median asking runs from $849,500 in Hayward to $1,299,994 in Fremont, and Fremont is also the quickest at 22.5 median days on market.

US 10-Year: 4.65% ▼ 0.06%  |  Gold: $4,472 ▲ 1.31%  |  Silver: $66.85 ▲ 5.67%  |  Brent: $91.62 ▲ 0.66%

The long end came down, which is the part that reaches your mortgage. The 10-Year eased 6 basis points to 4.65% and the 30-year Treasury fell to 5.19% from the 5.31% it touched Monday, a near 19 year high. The Treasury is buying back older bonds to calm that market and is doubling each buyback to at least $4 billion, with the stated aim of keeping borrowing costs stable.

Precious metals are having a moment. Gold ran more than 3% Tuesday to around $4,580 late in the day, eased to $4,472 by this morning, and is still up roughly $500 over three weeks. Silver went further, up 5.67% to $66.85. Barrick gained 7.22% and Newmont 7.85%. The newsletter quoted gold at $4,580, accurate for Tuesday afternoon but above where the metal sits today.

One number for the file: United States national debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time yesterday, against an economy producing roughly $32 trillion a year. It does not change your rate this morning, but it is the backdrop to every conversation about long term borrowing costs.

S&P 500: 7,707 ▲ 0.21%  |  DOW: 53,463 ▲ 0.22%  |  NASDAQ: 26,331 ▲ 0.16%

A quiet green day on the surface, and anything but underneath. Moderna and Merck reported that their experimental melanoma vaccine kept the cancer from returning in a late stage trial. Moderna rose 176.97% in one session to $174.38 and added roughly $60 billion of market value in a day. Merck gained 12.60%.

That open marker is the honest part of the chart. A 177% day invites a second look, and the second look is usually a rethink about how much of an eventual approval is already in the price. Elsewhere Stripe is paying more than $7 billion for OpenRouter, and in Shanghai robot maker Unitree surged 542% on its first day of trading.

BTC: $72,752 ▲ 7.01%  |  ETH: $2,342 ▲ 12.47%  |  XRP: $1.33 ▲ 26.06%

Yesterday's rally kept going. The catalyst was political: the President hosted crypto executives, said he wants the Singapore based exchange Hyperliquid to open in the United States, and pushed Congress to pass the Clarity Act. Bitcoin and Ether jumped to multi month highs, and the move wiped out more than $1 billion of short bets against Bitcoin in about an hour. Coinbase gained 9.55% and Strategy 12.68%.

These are live quotes from this morning rather than yesterday's close, because the tape moved a long way after the newsletter's 4 PM figures were set. The same softer dollar and easing long end that lifted gold are lifting this, and they are the forces that eventually move mortgage rates too. That is the only reason a crypto section belongs in a housing letter.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.