"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 08/19/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.75% ▲ 0.02%  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.31% ▲ 0.01%

Rates rose a third straight session. The 30-year fixed added 2 basis points to 6.75% and the 15-year added 1 to 6.31%. The steps are small and the direction has not changed all week, which is the part worth planning around.

Two national items landed on the same theme. Goldman Sachs is buying LCN Capital for $410 million, picking up more than 375 rental properties across the country. LCN owns them and does not manage them, so Goldman is entering the version of the landlord business that never hears from a tenant. Meanwhile Home Depot beat both profit and sales forecasts, with same store sales up 1.7% for its best showing in four years, and still called housing rough. Customers have the money and are hesitating on the big projects.

That second point travels. It is the same standoff we see here: real demand, slow trigger fingers. Buyers and owners are not short on capacity, they are short on urgency, and that is a very different problem from the one we had two years ago. It also tends to break quickly once it breaks.

Locally the board is carrying 2,682 active, BOMK, PCH and new listings across the 15 city board, with 220 coming soon and 198 brand new today. Our own 5 city ledger shows 719 homes a buyer can pursue right now, including 55 brand new listings and 114 more coming soon. The full, always-updating ledger lives at harvrealtor.net/live-inventory.

Today’s Live Inventory (buyable now)

• Fremont: 281 available (206 active, 22 new, 52 coming soon)
• Hayward: 198 available (163 active, 14 new, 20 coming soon)
• Milpitas: 107 available (77 active, 5 new, 25 coming soon)
• Newark: 79 available (61 active, 9 new, 9 coming soon)
• Union City: 54 available (41 active, 5 new, 8 coming soon)

Inventory turned back up, gaining 9 locally after yesterday’s dip, with Hayward adding 7 and Union City 3 while Fremont gave up 3 and Milpitas held flat. County wide the active count rose to 2,058 from 2,034. Median asking runs from $849,000 in Hayward to $1,298,000 in Fremont, and Newark stays the quickest at 25 median days on market.

US 10-Year: 4.71% ▼ 0.01%  |  Gold: $4,414 ▲ 0.39%  |  Silver: $63.26 ▼ 2.85%  |  Brent: $91.02 ▲ 0.17%

The Port of Los Angeles moved 960,464 TEUs in July, the second-busiest July in its history and behind only July 2025. Retailers pulled shipments forward to get ahead of tariffs and to dodge Iran tensions and Panama Canal delays. The footnote the headline leaves out is that volume was still down 5.82% from last July. Fuller shelves now, with shipping costs that can reach prices later.

Why a container count belongs in a housing letter: port volume is one of the earliest reads on what households are about to buy and what it will cost. Goods pulled forward now show up as shelf prices later, and shelf prices are what the inflation data is made of, which is what the bond market prices, which is what sets your mortgage rate.

The IRS clarified the no tax on overtime deduction. More than 29 million people claimed it in 2025 at roughly $3,000 apiece, but the break is not unlimited. Anything above $12,500 can still be taxed, and employers must keep tracking overtime on W-2s.

Three corrections to this morning’s newsletter. It printed the 10-Year as unchanged when the Treasury curve has it easing 1 basis point to 4.71%. It reported gold down 0.79% when gold actually rose 0.39% to $4,414. And it put Brent up 0.47% when the August 18 settlement was $91.02, a gain of 0.17%. Silver was left out of the newsletter entirely, so we pulled it live at $63.26.

S&P 500: 7,691 ▼ 0.69%  |  DOW: 53,343 ▼ 0.22%  |  NASDAQ: 26,289 ▼ 1.33%

A broad pullback with technology taking the worst of it. Energy went the other way and sits near record highs, up 20% from its July low, as oil keeps climbing. Valero and Marathon are each up more than 100% so far this year.

Staffing firms bounced back after months of investors assuming artificial intelligence would replace them. Manpower rose 4.77% and Robert Half added 3.04% on better than expected earnings, with Manpower posting its best operating profit in three years. The reason is refreshingly ordinary: companies still need people to recruit, hire and manage temporary staff. Worth remembering the next time someone tells you a relationship business is about to be automated away.

BTC: $68,737 ▲ 6.17%  |  ETH: $2,094 ▲ 9.38%  |  XRP: $1.07 ▲ 6.42%

These are live quotes from this morning rather than yesterday’s close, because the market moved hard overnight and the newsletter’s 4 PM figures were already well behind. Bitcoin jumped 6.17%, Ether led at 9.38%, and XRP added 6.42%. The backdrop was a softer dollar, down 0.75% on the day, and a 10-Year yield easing toward 4.65% intraday. Cheaper money and a weaker dollar tend to light up risk assets, and they did. The same two forces are the ones that eventually move mortgage rates, which is the only reason this section sits in a housing letter at all.

On policy, the SEC wants to let crypto startups raise up to $75 million without the usual registration process, moving on its own while Congress sits on the Clarity Act. Kraken is launching a debit card paying up to 2% back in cash or Bitcoin, following Coinbase into the wallet.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.