"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 07/31/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.83% ▲ 0.06%  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.32% ▲ 0.01%

Rates went the wrong way, and this one matters. The daily 30-year fixed climbed 6 basis points to 6.83%, its highest level in a year, while the 15-year rose a point to 6.32%. Rising bond yields out of the Middle East tensions plus a Fed that held while sounding hawkish are doing the pushing.

High prices had already sidelined millions of buyers, and every tick higher thins the pool further. If you have a buyer sitting on a pre-approval written at 6.5%, this is the week to re-run their payment and have the honest conversation before they fall for a house they cannot close on.

Big money is buying mortgages, just not here. Blackstone picked up $36 billion in Australian home loans from HSBC, which is slimming down under new leadership. Blackstone is deliberately diversifying away from the U.S. after new regulations landed on large real estate investors. When the biggest alternative asset manager on the planet goes shopping overseas, it is worth noticing what that says about the domestic return picture. The flip side is real: less institutional competition on entry-level inventory is exactly the opening a first-time buyer needs.

Today’s live board across our five focus cities shows 729 homes a buyer can actually pursue right now, including 51 brand new listings and 104 more coming soon. The full, always-updating ledger lives at harvrealtor.net/live-inventory.

Today’s Live Inventory (buyable now)

• Fremont: 281 available (216 active, 21 new, 43 coming soon)
• Hayward: 203 available (167 active, 16 new, 19 coming soon)
• Milpitas: 103 available (77 active, 3 new, 23 coming soon)
• Newark: 83 available (64 active, 6 new, 13 coming soon)
• Union City: 59 available (48 active, 5 new, 6 coming soon)

S&P 500: 7,437 ▲ 1.66%  |  DOW: 52,208 ▲ 1.19%  |  NASDAQ: 25,122 ▲ 2.78%

The market flipped. One day after its biggest selloff in about a year, Wall Street rebounded across the board, with the NASDAQ jumping 2.78% and chip stocks and Microsoft leading the bounce.

Earnings were a split decision. Amazon beat as its AWS cloud business boomed on AI demand, rising 3.90%. Apple, the world’s most valuable company, missed as App Store and subscription revenue slowed. Reddit beat on revenue but warned that search traffic from Google has turned unreliable, and Roblox fell 2.91% on fewer players.

Oracle was the standout, up 8.34% on a deal to let customers run Google’s Gemini AI inside its business software. The bet is that offering a choice between its own AI and Google’s keeps customers from leaving.

US 10-Year: 4.68% ▼ 0.02%  |  Gold: $4,038 ▼ 1.08%  |  Silver: $57.98 ▼ 0.20%  |  Brent: $88.24 ▲ 1.56%

Growth stalls while inflation sticks. The Bureau of Economic Analysis put second-quarter growth at 1.5% in its advance estimate, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, while inflation ran at 3.7%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Slower growth plus stubborn prices is the hard combination, and it is exactly why three Fed officials voted to hike this week.

The chart shows the full five-year run. The 7.0% reopening surge of late 2021 is long gone, and the last four quarters have swung from 4.4% down to 0.5%, back up to 2.1%, and now to 1.5%. BEA credits the slowdown to a downturn in government spending plus decelerating investment and exports, partly offset by consumers who actually spent more.

Small businesses are feeling it first. Merchant cash advances, the expensive kind of financing, were used by 12% of small firms in 2025, up from 9% a year earlier. Tariffs are squeezing cash flow and many of these firms cannot qualify for cheaper bank loans.

Why a REALTOR® cares: 1.5% growth with 3.7% inflation is the setup that keeps mortgage rates elevated without giving buyers the wage gains to absorb them. It hits the self-employed borrower first, and in this market that is a meaningful share of the buyer pool.

BTC: $64,869 ▲ 1.54%  |  ETH: $1,921 ▲ 1.21%  |  XRP: $1.08 ▼ 0.20%

Crypto rode the rebound, with bitcoin posting a third straight day of gains and total crypto market value climbing about 1.35% to $2.21 trillion. Worth warning clients about: fraudsters are mailing fake IRS letters carrying QR codes that lead to a site built to drain a crypto wallet, and crypto scam losses hit $11 billion in 2025. Never scan a QR code that arrives unsolicited. Separately, Coinbase had a soft quarter on lighter trading volume, though its subscription revenue grew.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.