"At a Glance" Local Housing STATS and News 07/30/26

30-Year Fixed: 6.77% ▼ 0.01%  |  15-Year Fixed: 6.31% ▼ 0.01%

Rates eased a basis point, and that is the calm before the read through. The Fed held yesterday but three officials voted to hike, and traders now put September hike odds near 70%. The 30-year tends to move well ahead of the Fed itself, so today’s 6.77% is the number your buyers may look back on.

International buyers are stepping back. Foreign purchases of U.S. homes fell $11 billion from a year ago, and Chinese buyers alone spent close to half what they spent last year. High prices, tight inventory, and political tension are cooling overseas demand. For local buyers that means less competition in exactly the markets that drew the most foreign money, California among them.

Housing is also losing some shine as a wealth engine. Over the past decade stocks have outpaced home appreciation once you account for taxes, insurance, and repairs, and more Americans are renting and investing the difference. That comparison leaves out leverage, the mortgage interest deduction, and the fact that nobody lives inside an index fund. It is a real objection you will hear this year, and the answer is a side by side on the specific property, not a defense of housing in general.

Today’s live board across our five focus cities shows 724 homes a buyer can actually pursue right now, including 41 brand new listings and 102 more coming soon. The full, always-updating ledger lives at harvrealtor.net/live-inventory.

Today’s Live Inventory (buyable now)

• Fremont: 274 available (213 active, 18 new, 42 coming soon)
• Hayward: 200 available (169 active, 12 new, 18 coming soon)
• Milpitas: 106 available (82 active, 2 new, 22 coming soon)
• Newark: 83 available (64 active, 6 new, 13 coming soon)
• Union City: 61 available (51 active, 3 new, 7 coming soon)

S&P 500: 7,316 ▼ 1.52%  |  DOW: 51,594 ▼ 2.19%  |  NASDAQ: 24,443 ▼ 1.74%

The DOW fell more than 1,100 points, its worst single day since April 2025. The Fed left rates alone, but three officials voted for a hike and the market read the meeting as hawkish. Yields rose and stocks slid across the board.

Meta and Microsoft both reported after the bell. Microsoft beat, spending more on data centers and driving cloud revenue higher. Meta went the other way: shares fell more than 10% at one point in after hours trading once the company said its AI investments are draining free cash flow. That caps a rough year, down 11.28% and $74.48 a share since January (chart below).

The chip trade is unwinding fast. The sector has shed more than $1 trillion since last Friday, with Nvidia alone giving up $238 billion in market value, the biggest weekly selloff in chip stocks since 2020.

US 10-Year: 4.70% ▲ 0.09%  |  Gold: $4,131 ▲ 0.60%  |  Silver: $58.81 ▲ 1.30%  |  Brent: $90.74 ▲ 7.90%

Warsh waits. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the committee left rates unchanged in a 9 to 3 vote, the fifth straight meeting with no move, holding the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three officials wanted a hike outright, and traders now put September odds near 70%. That flows straight through to mortgage rates, auto loans, and home equity lines.

Oil is the wild card now. Brent jumped 7.90% to $90.74 after President Trump threatened to strike Iran, following overnight Iranian strikes on U.S. assets. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes. U.S. refineries are processing about 17 million barrels a day, the most since 2019, and it still is not enough to loosen supply.

Metals liked the hold. Gold crested $4,100 and trades at $4,131 after rising nearly 2% on the Fed news itself, while silver added 1.30% to $58.81 and still cannot reclaim $60.

Why a REALTOR® cares: the 70% September hike bet is the number to watch, not yesterday’s hold. If it firms up, the 30-year moves before the Fed ever does.

BTC: $64,552 ▲ 0.92%  |  ETH: $1,916 ▲ 0.43%  |  XRP: $1.08 ▲ 0.49%

Crypto held its ground on a red day for stocks, and regulation is parked until fall. Congress punted the CLARITY Act until after the summer break, and its odds of passing are now put at roughly 5%. The Senate moved a Russia sanctions bill ahead of it, and Democrats remain split over added ethics language, so a long list of open questions simply carries forward. Separately, Robinhood pulled in $100 million from crypto alone, well above estimates, and the stock fell 3.15% anyway.

Disclaimer: The market data, rates, and information provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always verify rates and data with your lender or financial advisor before making any decisions.